One Angry Swede

So I figure it's time for another post about hurricanes what with Gustav doing his best to become one beast of a storm. Not to sound alarmist, but this is a storm we all need to pay attention to. It does appear that we will avoid a direct hit but, unfortunately, we still aren't out of the woods at this point. However, the past couple of days have gotten me to thinking more about hurricane culture, and just the plain and simple truth that we who have grown up along the Gulf Coast have a better understanding about how the next couple of days are going to shape up.

Like the one word you're going to hear in the next couple of days, and you must hope and pray Gustav doesn't do is wiggle. A 'wiggle' is a small shake in the path of a hurricane. This kind of behavior is one of the main reasons that hurricanes are so freakin' hard to predict. Depending on where you look for information on hurricanes, they could be following at least 16 different computer models. SIXTEEN! And, if you've seen them, they tend to pick 16 different paths. Right now they are predicting landfall in Louisiana because the most reliable computer models this season are predicting that path. This doesn't mean that it's going to happen, it just means that it's likely. Personally, I follow Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com), and consider it to be one of the best resources. I tend to stay away from local coverage because well, it tends to go WAY overboard. It's not their fault really, paranoia leads to more people turning on televisions. More people watching the local news means higher ratings. Higher ratings lead to more ad dollars. Yes, there is a case to be made for responsible journalism, but local and national news sources are businesses that have to make money. Wundergroun is great because it doesn't have a local interest. Oh, and avoid the SciGuy over at the Chronicle; he is simply too quick to raise the alarm. WAY TOO QUICK!

So what is the story on Gustav? Well, I'm expecting him to enter the canon of some of the greatest storms in hurricane lore. Andrew, Hugo, Katrina, Carla, the list is fairly legendary. There is not likely to be another Gustav, and he will leave a very real mark wherever he hits. Right now, it appears that he will hit land as a Category 4 storm. That's one step up from Katrina and Alicia, the last major hurricane to strike the Houston area. The main issue to consider is that hurricanes are exponentially dangerous as you start bumping up that scale. Alicia was probably a strong 2 when he finally got to Houston. Again, we have a nice little speed bump for any storm, but Gustav is going to represent a serious problem if he strikes land as a category 4 or 5. Still, all current projections show that he will be a strong 4 when he hits land.

It's actually a good thing that he is going to be hitting 5 status so far out in the Gulf. The one thing I learned about hurricanes during Rita was that hurricanes cannot maintain their strength once they get into the Cat 4 and 5 range. Simply put, they blow themselves out. Rita was the strongest storm in recorded history, but weakened considerably before it hit land despite taking a strong stroll through the warm Gulf waters in 2005. They are expecting Gustav to hit Cat 5 Status while it is over Cuba this evening then dropping back down to a 4 sometime Monday morning. I'd also point out though that this storm wasn't supposed to hit Category 5, much less 4, status a couple of days ago.

Wait, I totally jumped track from the whole wiggle issue. Because of the projected path of the storm, we are still in, what has become the grandaddy of all hurricane cliches, the cone of uncertainty. DUH-DUH-DUH! If Gustav wiggles it, just a little bit, well, it might be time to start thinking about how you are getting the hell out of dodge.

Okay, so let's talk turkey. What should you be doing right now?

1. Have fun.
These are fun times on the Gulf Coast. I don't mean to trivialize the seriousness of this event. There are people evacuating along parts of the entire Gulf Coast as I write this. A major hurricane is always going to be equal parts fear and schadenfreude. For every person that flees a storm, there is another hoisting a alcoholic beverage in defiance.

2. Do NOT, under ANY circumstances, underestimate this storm.
While terribly cliche, the Cone of Uncertainty is still a very accurate statement. While it does not appear that Gustav will hit Houston directly, it is still very much a possibility. By tomorrow afternoon/evening or Monday morning, we should know for certain what this storm is going to do. I am hopeful that the projections haven't swayed from Louisiana over the past few days, but I am not thrilled that a storm that wasn't supposed to get stronger than a Category 3 two days ago is going to reach Cat 5 status tonight. A LOT can change in the next 48 hours, please do not forget that.

3. Walk, don't run.
This is all conjecture, but important. If, and that's a big IF, Gustav decides Houston is a better spot to visit, you may or may not need to evacuate. In any case, he's going to be a serious storm, and it is going to be very dangerous. However, I am not evacuating further than Sugar Land. Galveston and the 50-60 miles of land between the coast and us is going to knock a lot of the smack of Gustav, regardless of how strong he is. Again, it's still going to mean a pretty scary 24 hours, but you might get the chance to see one of the most unnerving and magical parts of a hurricane, the Eye of the storm. Imagine all hell breaking loose around you, only to have it get startling calm and serene. You walk outside, and it's clear outside. The sun is shining, the birds are chirping. Your house, the trees, creak because they have just been put through an intense test of their strength and durability. It's really an amazing moment. I still remember the Eye of Alicia. However, when you go out into the eye, be mindful getting back inside before the rest of the storm hits. It is at the Eye Wall that you see the sheer power of a hurricane. Therefore it is the calmest and most dangerous part of the storm.

If you're south and east of Houston, you really need to start thinking about moving to a better location. If you are west and north, you need to seriously consider staying home, but prepare yourself. Kroger is on full alert with plenty of water and supplies. It would not be a bad idea to stock up today or tomorrow. Also, it's probably a good idea to fill your gas tank. Prices, regardless if it comes here or not, are going to rise in the next few days. Protect yourself, and save some money on your next fill-up. It will be more expensive later in the week.

In the end, be smart, and stay informed. There is no shame in being concerned or vigilant for the next 72 hours.